A key strategic thrust is renewable energy development, with a goal for renewables to contribute 75% of the country’s electricity capacity by 20401. Among these renewable resources, Indonesia’s geothermal potential stands out, with abundant resources located at 362 sites throughout Indonesia2. This potential is particularly promising for supporting the nation’s decarbonization goals, as geothermal energy offers a reliable and sustainable source of power.
This article will explore Indonesia’s geothermal potential, the challenges of greenfield development, opportunities for Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) investment in the sector, and how IGPI can support private and public companies to capitalize on these opportunities.
Within ASEAN today, two countries lead in geothermal capacity: Indonesia and the Philippines. While both nations boast abundant potential, Indonesia’s geothermal potential has seen more rapid growth in this area over the last five years. However, despite this potential, the development of geothermal energy in Indonesia is fraught with significant challenges, especially during the exploration phase, which presents obstacles to sustained greenfield development.
In ASEAN, the total geothermal potential capacity amounts to 34 gigawatts (GW), concentrated primarily in Indonesia and the Philippines. Over the past five years, Indonesia has emerged as the leading developer of geothermal power in the region, achieving an annual growth rate of 4.6% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2018 to 2023, while the Philippines has seen minimal growth at just 0.3% CAGR over the same period3.
As of 2023, Indonesia has installed about 2.28 GW of geothermal capacity, representing only around 8% of its total geothermal potential of 30 GW. According to the General Plan for National Energy (RUEN), Indonesia aims to achieve 7.24 gigawatts of geothermal power by 2025, requiring an investment of approximately US$15 billion, and to reach 9.3 gigawatts by 2035. This plan highlights significant opportunities for future development in Indonesia’s geothermal potential.
Yet, two key obstacles hinder the development of greenfield geothermal projects in the country: high exploration risks and challenges in securing licensing and land clearance.
1) High Exploration Risk
The primary challenge in developing new greenfield geothermal projects is the substantial risk associated with exploration, requiring substantial investments ranging from 3 to 5 million USD/MW4 and carrying considerable uncertainty in finding viable geothermal sources. The government has implemented measures to mitigate these risks, including support for drilling, soft loans, and exploration funding through initiatives such as the Geothermal Sector Infrastructure Financing Scheme (PISP) and Geothermal Resource Risk Mitigation (GREM)5. However, these incentives have seen limited uptake due to a combination of factors, including insufficient tariffs on electricity produced and high-interest rates that increase the required return on investment.
2) Challenges in Licensing and Land Clearance Procedures
Despite the government’s introduction of a one-stop licensing system and the designation of geothermal projects as National Strategic Projects (PSN), practical challenges remain. Exploration and subsequent development often overlap with, and potentially conflict with, other environmental legislation, such as protected land/forest areas. Deconstructing and organizing these policies will take time; until then, many exploration permits will require long waiting periods for approval or may fail after multiple rounds of submission and clearance.
Given the challenges associated with greenfield projects, a brownfield approach—specifically via geothermal M&A—has become an attractive entry option for many developers and investors seeking to enter this sector. This strategy has particularly resonated with Japanese entities; to date, there are 7 Japanese entities involved in geothermal projects in Indonesia, with 5 of these entering via M&A. Between 2007 and 2023, there were approximately 15 M&A transactions in Indonesia’s geothermal industry6, 8 of which were executed by Japanese entities.
Among the 5 Japanese players in the market today, INPEX stands out. Since its entry in 2011, the company has primarily employed a brownfield strategy to rapidly expand its geothermal business in Indonesia. Through INPEX Geothermal Ltd., which primarily focuses on geothermal activities, the company has successfully completed four acquisitions7.
In 2015, INPEX made its inaugural brownfield investment by acquiring a 49% stake in Medco Power Indonesia, which in turn owns a 37.25% interest in the Sarulla Geothermal Project, joining a consortium that oversees one of the world’s largest single-contract geothermal power projects. To date, INPEX holds an 18% stake in the project.
In 2021, INPEX further expanded its portfolio by acquiring a 33.3% share from PT Supreme Energy Sumatera, which in turn owns a 30% interest in the Supreme Muara Laboh Geothermal Project, bringing the company’s ownership in this project to 10%. In 2022, INPEX further increased its stake from 10% to 30% by acquiring an additional 20% from another project shareholder, ENGIE SA. That same year, INPEX also completed an investment in the Supreme Energy Rantau Dedap Geothermal Project by acquiring a 27.4% stake from ENGIE SA.
Most recently, in 2023, INPEX joined the Supreme Energy Rajabasa Geothermal project in Lampung, acquiring a 31.45% stake from PT Supreme Energy Raja Basa. Through these strategic investments, INPEX is solidifying its position as a key player in Indonesia’s geothermal energy sector, contributing to the country’s efforts toward sustainable energy development.
Japanese entities have already begun their foray into the geothermal sector. The combination of a fragmented market landscape, characterized by numerous operating entities and relatively young geothermal facilities (with 60% being under 16 years old8), along with the apparent interest from local entities in seeking strategic partners to enhance technology and expand operations, highlights a market primed and ready for foreign private capital to spur growth.
IGPI Singapore specializes in supporting clients with M&A projects, conducting market research, and developing market entry strategies, particularly within the renewable energy sector.
To address these challenges, IGPI offers comprehensive M&A assessment services, including (not limited to):
◆ Target Screening (Pre-Due Diligence): We conduct thorough primary research to identify potential investments and shortlist viable targets.
◆ Due Diligence: Our team performs detailed commercial due diligence to gain a deeper understanding of potential targets, covering market analysis, business models, synergies, investment risks, and more.
These solutions are tailored to empower clients to make informed decisions and navigate complexities in their investment initiatives, ensuring strategic and successful market entries.
To find out more about how IGPI can provide consulting support for businesses, browse through our insight articles or get in contact with us.
1. Business Plan for Electricity Supply (RUPTL) PLN 2024-20
2. Center for Mineral, Coal, and Geothermal Resources (PSDMBP)
3. IRENA, Geothermal Energy Data
4. API – Indonesia Geothermal Association
5. API – Indonesia Geothermal Association, Webinar – Geothermal Added Value Creation Strategy as a Supportive Measure for NZE 2060
6. Merger Market
7. INPEX Corporation
8. Global Geothermal Tracker
Mr. Febrizal is the Associate of IGPI Singapore. Prior to joining IGPI, Febrizal worked at YCP Solidiance and PwC Indonesia, where he successfully completed a range of consulting projects, including market entry strategy, growth strategy, and business model identification, across diverse industries such as Agriculture, Automotive, and Industrial. He has extensive experience in M&A activities, including conducting commercial due diligence, valuations, and providing deal advisory services (connecting buy-side and sell-side). Febrizal holds a degree in Economics from Binus University.
Industrial Growth Platform Inc. (IGPI) is a Japan-rooted premium management consulting & investment firm headquartered in Tokyo with offices in Osaka, Singapore, Hanoi, Shanghai & Melbourne. IGPI was established in 2007 by former members of Industrial Revitalization Corporation of Japan (IRCJ), a USD 100 billion sovereign wealth fund focusing on turnaround projects in Japan. IGPI has 13 institutional investors, including Nomura Holdings, SMBC, KDDI, Recruit & Sumitomo Corporation, to name a few. IGPI has vast experience supporting Fortune 500s, government. agencies, universities, SMEs, and funded startups across Asia and beyond for their strategic business needs and hands-on support across a wide variety of industries. IGPI group has approximately 7,500 employees on a consolidated basis.
* This material is intended merely for reference purposes based on our experience and is not intended to be comprehensive and does not constitute as advice. Information contained in this material has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but IGPI does not represent or warrant the quality, completeness and accuracy of such information. All rights reserved by IGPI.
In 2023, M&A by Japanese companies in Singapore reached USD 3 billion, four times the level of the previous year and the highest level since 2020. Specifically, various M&A deals of various sizes were announced in a wide range of industries, from Sumitomo Life Insurance making SingLife a subsidiary with an additional investment of approximately JPY 170 billion to Watami, a major restaurant company, acquiring an approximately 80% stake in a local food company and two affiliated companies for approximately JPY 1 billion.
One of the major reasons for Japanese companies to conduct M&A overseas is the expected contraction of the domestic market against the backdrop of a declining birthrate, aging population, and shrinking population. In particular, Singapore is positioned by many Japanese companies as a core market for their Asian strategies, and in fact, Singapore accounts for the largest share of M&A by Japanese companies in Southeast Asia, at 45% of all announced M&A in 2023. In addition, 99% of Singapore companies are SMEs with less than 200 employees or sales of less than SGD 100 million, and the number of companies considering sale due to lack of successors is expected to increase, which may also be a factor in the increase in M&A.
The success or failure of an M&A depends on the post-merger integration process, or PMI, between the two companies, and careful planning and execution are essential to realize the strategies and synergies that have been drawn. However, even at the stage of M&A closing, there are still some problems that may cause the M&A to be abandoned. In my experience, there have been cases where an overseas M&A that was being examined was scrapped due to a change in the director in charge of overseas operations, where the growth strategy after the deal was unclear and the M&A itself was close to the objective, and where a lack of communication skills, including language skills, caused anxiety in the target company.
IGPI Singapore provides assistance not only to Japanese companies but also to companies in Southeast Asian countries in developing overseas expansion and expansion strategies, as well as alliances with local partners in overseas markets. With an awareness of the issues mentioned above as a backdrop, we are committed to making M&A successful, while at the same time working closely with our clients to build relationships with the top management of the target companies. We would be happy to hear from you if you are considering M&A in the Southeast Asian region.
To find out more about how IGPI can provide consulting support for businesses, browse through our insight articles or get in contact with us.
Mr. Ryota Yamazaki is the Director of IGPI Singapore. Before joining IGPI, Ryota worked in Deloitte Consulting in Singapore, where he was a leader in the areas of Consumer Business and Supply Chain & Logistics in Southeast Asia. His areas of expertise are Strategy & Operations such as market entry, Route-to-Market (RTM) strategy, business due diligence, and PMI. He started his career with A.P. Moller-Maersk Group as a management trainee and also worked for Kurt Salmon, where he had vast project experiences especially in Supply Chain & Logistics for the retail and consumer goods clients. Ryota graduated from the Faculty of Economics at Keio University.
Industrial Growth Platform Inc. (IGPI) is a premier Japanese business consulting firm with a presence and coverage across Asian markets. IGPI was established by former members of the Industrial Revitalization Corporation of Japan (IRCJ) in 2007. IRCJ, a US $100 billion Japanese sovereign wealth fund, is known as one of the most successful turn-around funds supported by the Japanese government.
In 2017, IGPI collaborated with the Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC) to form JBIC IG, providing investment advisory services and supporting overseas investment. In 2019, JBIC, along with BaltCap, jointly established Nordic Ninja, a €100 million venture capital fund to focus on deep tech sectors such as autonomous mobility, digital health, AR/VR/MR, artificial intelligence, robotics and IoT in the Nordic and Baltic region. In 2019, IGPI established IGPI Technology to focus on the area of science and technology. The company invests in technological ventures and provides hands-on management support. The company also provides business development support towards commercialization and monetization of technologies.
* This material is intended merely for reference purposes based on our experience and is not intended to be comprehensive and does not constitute as advice. Information contained in this material has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but IGPI does not represent or warrant the quality, completeness and accuracy of such information. All rights reserved by IGPI.
Period of announcement | Key regulations | Issuer | Summarised key content on the regulation |
September 2022 | Personal Data Protection Law Bill (to be soon enacted as Law) | House of representative – which will become Law once it is ratified by the President | The Personal Data Protection (“PDP”) Law will be the first comprehensive law in Indonesia to govern personal data protection in both electronic systems and non-electronic systems. |
September 2022 | Acceleration of Renewable Energy Development for Electric Supply (“PR 112/2022“) | President of Indonesia | To accelerate the usage of renewable energy as an energy source as well as reducing greenhouse gas emission (“GHG“). restriction of operational period for steam power plants, limitation of new steam power plants construction, obligation to use local components in order to implement Electric Supply Business Plan by PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara (“PLN“), pricing of electricity based on a renewable source, electricity procurement, and many other provisions. |
October 2021 | Harmonisation of Tax Regulations (“Law 7/2021”) | Government of Republic of Indonesia | Several tax provisions in Indonesia which had previously been regulated in separate regulations are now being amended simultaneously. Some of these regulations are Law on General Provisions and Tax Procedures (General Provisions of Taxation Law), Law on Income Tax (Income Tax Law), Law on Value Added Tax on Goods and Services and Sales Tax on Luxury Goods (VAT and Luxury Goods Sales Tax Law), Law on Excise (Excise Law), and other tax regulations issued during the Covid-19 Pandemic. |
March 2021 | Risk-Based Business Licensing Concept as part of the implementation law of Omnibus Law (“GR 5/2021“) | Government of Republic of Indonesia | Business licensing is the legality which is granted to business actors to start and run their business and/or business activities,1 and risk is the potential loss caused by hazards.2 Thus, risk-based business licensing is a business licence based on the risk level of such business (“Risk-Based Business Licensing”). The implementation of Risk-Based Business Licensing is aimed to improve the investment ecosystem and business activities, through4: a. the implementation of the issuance of business licences is more effective and simpler; and b. transparency, structured, and accountable supervision of business activities in accordance with provisions of laws and regulations. |
March 2021 | Investment Line of Business – as part of the implementation law under the Omnibus Law (“PR 10/2021“) | President of Indonesia | Offers ease of investment through amendment regarding the lists of lines of businesses that are open to investment, lines of business that are closed to investment, and lines of businesses that shall be carried out only by the central government |
1. Understand the basic nature and mechanics of Indonesian limited liability company regulations Gaining an understanding of the mechanics behind the Indonesian Limited Liability Company is your key first step to navigate this complexity. You may start by gaining an understanding of the Indonesia Standard Industrial Classification (or formally known as Klasifikasi Buku Lapangan Indonesia (KBLI)) and the various licences needed to operate certain businesses (or also known as Surat Izin Usaha Perdagangan (SIUP)). Beyond that, it is also important to understand the basic structure of Indonesia Limited Liability Company as coded by Law No.40 of 2007 (Company Law) as amended by Law No.11 of 2020 of Omnibus Law and Law No.25 of 2007 on Capital Investment (Investment Law), which governs the basic legal framework of investing into the country.
2. Go to the source and have your local Indonesian team vet through the regulations When in doubt, you should always go back to the source and not just rely on the interpretation of the law itself (or as reviewed/ commented by many legal advisors). Where necessary, it is definitely very important to have your Indonesian team members or representatives look into the original regulations as issued by the official source.
3. Seek advice from government investment services It is always important to get advice from not only your legal key person but also from government investment services and relevant trade associations. This is probably the only time that getting multiple pieces of advice from various sources is an efficient way to do business in the context of performing M&A in Indonesia, as a simple wrong step may cause a significant setback. Hence, other than getting reliable advice from your trusted legal advisor, it may also be necessary to contact the investment service department of the Investment Coordination Board (BKPM) OR your contacts in the relevant trade associations.
4. Always keep yourself updated and aware that many regulations are not always permanent In the example above, there was a ban imposed on the exports of coal – but this was only ephemeral – at the end of January 2022, which is just a few days from when the ban was announced, these regulations have been updated and there is no longer a ban imposed on such exports. This is to show that rules do change frequently.
At IGPI, we believe that it is very important to understand the local regulatory customs governing your business needs. We hope that the legal framework and advice above would be of great assistance when you explore M&A in Indonesia. Feel free to reach out to our M&A advisory team for any further discussion. **************************************************************************************************** [1] https://www.tmf-group.com/en/news-insights/publications/2022/global-business-complexity-index/ [2] https://www.esdm.go.id/en/media-center/news-archives/preventing-power-outages-govt-temporarily-bans-coal-export [3] The various provincial rules issued pertaining to PT Tambang Batu Bara Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbnk at Tanjung ENIM ****************************************************************************************************Our client, a global fortune 500 conglomerate, wanted to enter a new space in the technology-driven health and wellness sector in Southeast Asia |
1. How to source for ideas? | 2. How to define the business model? | 3. Who should they partner? |
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IGPI’s involvement |
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Japanese client in the steel manufacturing industry known for their technology and innovation wishes to expand beyond the domestic market into Southeast Asia |
Which Southeast Asian market to enter? | What is the mode of entry? | Who should they partner? |
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IGPI’s involvement | Performed analysis of 6 key markets in terms of market size and potential, government regulations and support, business operating environment etc | Analyzed options such as entering organically, joint venture, partnership, acquisition and discussed with client on pros and cons | Created list of potential targets for collaboration and contacted targets for discussion before conducting due diligence |
Outcome | Client decided on Thailand as key market to enter based on holistic consideration | Acquisition was selected as the mode of entry for speed of access | Selected target that had broad network to cross-sell client’s products and due diligence was done with information constraint of target |
Key takeaways: There needs to be clear strategy for growth. The Japanese company understood its core strength was its products and sought targets who had distribution channels and customer access to complement them. Top management needs to be committed and involved. IGPI was able to work directly with the top executives that could make prompt well-informed decisions. Local knowledge is important for overseas expansion. Local knowledge helped to build rapport with potential targets and facilitated due diligence as our team needed to work around information constraint. |